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FAO/UNEP/UN-Energy Bioenergy Decision Support Tool -
MODULE 3: Implementation and Operation
on how data is gathered and how the baseline is developed. An
example for electric power is given in Figure 5.
Characterising the supply side also requires some specifcation
regarding the energy infrastructure, including transportation,
transmission and distribution; the particular method of classifying
the different types of infrastructure and assigning quantitative
characteristics will depend on the nature and purpose of the
energy planning exercises.
MODELS AND SCENARIOS
The energy
baseline scenario
normally includes not only a
snapshot of current supply and demand, but also the various
assumptions that together are expected to determine future
trends in supply and demand. In
scenario analysis
, the economic
interaction between supply and demand is not considered
directly; instead various expected future paths or scenarios are
constructed, starting with the
baseline scenario
. The construction
of such a reference case or
baseline scenario
in an energy
planning exercise requires baseline assumptions in addition
to the
baseline data
discussed above; one might assume that
consumers choose the lowest cost option and/or one might
assign some longer-term resource or economic/environmental
constraints.
There will generally be external assumptions about future
variables and constraints for key drivers such as population,
economic growth and building size, as well as the demand
for energy services in the various sectors and end-uses. The
Long-Range Energy Analysis and Planning System (LEAP) is
an example of a tool that is widely used at the country level for
evaluating energy baselines and constructing future scenarios
(LEAP, 2010). For scenario analysis, it is often convenient to divide
the baseline information required into data, assumptions, and
parameters—which then feed into the scenario defnitions (Figure
6). A similar structure might be used in demand-based models
and some types of engineering-economic models, whereas more
generalised economic models would be based more on relative
prices over time according to the supply and demand of fuels,
technologies and energy services.
With economic models, some calculation will be made of the
expected “market-clearing” quantity and price for each type
of fuel, end-use and/or technology option. Depending on the
type of economic model employed, there may also be external
assumptions about key parameters and trends over time.
Developing and using a common structure for energy-economic
models is more diffcult at the country level than is the case for
scenario models; the diffculties arise from the wide variation in the
availability of detailed and consistent economic data, the capacity
of economists to construct and interpret such models and the
widely differing needs of energy policy planners and analysts.
THE BASELINE DEVELOPMENT “PROCESS”
The development or modifcation of energy and resource
baselines is not simply a data-gathering exercise or a modelling
effort; the process of developing this baseline can be quite
important for overall energy policy/strategy and the achievement
of basic policy objectives. Those involved in the development
of the baseline are almost always forced to consider a variety
of inherent data uncertainties, assumptions about future
trends, and emerging issues and constraints. The success of
bioenergy programmes and projects (as with most public policy
undertakings) depends signifcantly on the qualitative assumptions
and relations as well as the quantitative information that is
contained in the baseline. For example, controversial issues can
sometimes be buried in the assumptions and parameters that are
used to project future demand, supply and/or biomass resource
availability. Addressing and resolving such issues can change the
direction of how a bioenergy strategy is implemented and alter
Sector
Buildings / Residential
Cooking
Kerosene
LPG
Electricity
Woodfuel
End-use
Fuels
Technology
Options
Stove /
Option 1
Microwave
Oven
Stove /
Oven
LPG
Stove 2
LPG
Stove 1
Stove /
Option 2
Stove /
Option 1
Stove /
Option 2
Energy Source / Type
Electric Power
Grid
Off-grid
Imported
Access / Availability
Distribution / Fuel / Technology
Large-scale
Coal-fired
Biomass Gasifier
+ Engine
Stand-alone
Generators
Photovoltaic
(PV) systems
Cogeneration
Plants
Large-scale
Hydropower
NOTE: Fuels and technology options listed are examples only – can be as few or as many as needed
Figure 5: Example disaggregation for availability, fuel type and technology in energy supply
Figure 4: Example of mapping technology options and fuels for demand sector and end-use